SEIRD Model for Analyzing Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic

This Demonstration presents a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-died (SEIRD) model for analyzing the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. A control parameter

μ

with a value in the range

[0,1]

is introduced into the model to measure the effectiveness of a social distancing policy. The higher the value of

μ

, the more effective the control policy. The parameters of the model were obtained by using the vast data provided about the pandemic on a daily basis by several scientific organizations. The model makes predictions on the turning points and possible vanishing time of the pandemic for a given population and initial number of exposed persons.