SEIRD Model for Analyzing Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic

parameter values

effectiveness of social distancing

μ

0.

time (days)

t

max

150

total population (millions)

n

1

average incubation time (days)

-1

γ

2.3

average infective time (days)

-1

δ

2.7

number initially exposed

e

0

1

case fatality rate

ϕ

1.×

-6

10

	susceptible
	exposed
	infected
	recovered
	died

This Demonstration presents a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-died (SEIRD) model for analyzing the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. A control parameter

μ

with a value in the range

[0,1]

is introduced into the model to measure the effectiveness of a social distancing policy. The higher the value of

μ

, the more effective the control policy. The parameters of the model were obtained by using the vast data provided about the pandemic on a daily basis by several scientific organizations. The model makes predictions on the turning points and possible vanishing time of the pandemic for a given population and initial number of exposed persons.