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Extreme Value Forecasting
Extreme Value Forecasting
The application of extreme value theory to block maxima data is illustrated in this Demonstration, using five datasets drawn from the diverse fields of hydrology and Doppler radar. Even though the times and scales of this data are very different, extreme value theory proves to be a very useful tool for analyzing it. Specifically, this Demonstration lets you view the sensitivity of the extreme value return diagram (also known as the Gumbel plot) to the length of the data record and the degree of confidence that is desired in the prediction. The computations shown in this distribution are based upon fitting data to the generalized extreme value distribution, which is implemented in Mathematica as the MaxStableDistribution.