WOLFRAM|DEMONSTRATIONS PROJECT

Expanded Fermi Solution for Estimating a Complaint's Probability

seed value

0

seed repeatable random numbers

data

generate

clear

random trials to generate

1000

number of complaints

5

minima

maxima

m

200

800

m multiplier

1

10

100

1,000

p

1

0.1

0.5

p

2

0.6

0.8

p

3

0.7

0.9

p

4

0.5

0.8

p

5

1.

1.

This Demonstration estimates the probability that a dissatisfied consumer files a complaint about a faulty manufactured product. It uses the expanded Fermi solution as the method of calculation. It is based on dividing the number of complaints by the assumed number,

m

, of units produced or still unconsumed and by a set of successive probabilities,

p

1

to

p

5

. These are, for example, the probability that spoilage or failure has occurred, that it has been discovered by the consumer, etc. All these factors are specified by their estimated upper and lower limits and are used to calculate the best estimate of the complaint probability analytically and by Monte Carlo simulation.