Dynamics of Seasonal Epidemics

time t

10.

season length T

10.

initally infected

I

0

1.×

-6

10

initial infection rate

β

0

3.

recovery rate γ

1

death rate μ

0.1

To study how the probability of getting a disease varies with the seasons of the year, this Demonstration analyzes a susceptibility-infection-recovery (SIR) model with a periodically varying infection rate. The model is a set of nonlinear differential equations with periodically varying parameters.