Convergence of Probability II: Condorcet's Jury Theorem, Part 4
Convergence of Probability II: Condorcet's Jury Theorem, Part 4
This is the fourth of five Demonstrations about Condorcet's jury theorem (1785). For a given probability bias and number of voters , the probability that an election yields the "correct" result can be calculated from the binomial distribution and is shown on the plot as a horizontal dashed line. As the number of elections grows, the fraction of elections yielding the "correct" result approaches this value.
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