WOLFRAM|DEMONSTRATIONS PROJECT

Assessor Model for Simulated Test Markets

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trial: T
awareness: A
F: ideal trial
0.33
K: awareness
0.7
D: distribution
0.8
sampling: S
C: samples
0.1
U: sample usage
0.8
repeat: R
S
0
: initial share
0.1
NS: new brandswitching rate
0.3
CS: competitors'switching rate
0.25
Trial
Repeat
Share
0.250
0.455
0.114
Period
Share Among Triers
0
0.100
1
0.295
2
0.383
3
0.422
4
0.440
5
0.448
6
0.452
7
0.453
8
0.454
9
0.454
10
0.454
11
0.454
12
0.455
13
0.455
14
0.455
15
0.455
Firms that produce consumer-packaged goods use simulated test markets to forecast the long-run market share of a new product before introducing it in the marketplace.
This Demonstration shows how the market share estimate varies as a function of the different trial and repeat values available from the simulated test market.