De Finetti's Game
De Finetti's Game
Bruno de Finetti defined probability as a quantity that measures a subjective degree-of-belief rather than an objective quantity. According to de Finetti, such a (possibly very vague) degree-of-belief can be quantified through thought experiments involving urns with a varying fraction of differently colored balls. A degree-of-belief value is quantified by the willingness of people to risk money by betting on the result of randomly drawing a ball of a particular color.