Given a random variable X with P(X) = 15% chance of success, how many times do I need to try in order to be 95% certain of at least one success?
success=0.15;failure=1-success;certainty=0.95;risk=1-certainty;tries=
Log[risk]
Log[failure]
18.4331
18 tries at 15% success/try risk an all-failures outcome in 5% of their outcomes.
