This article is coauthored with Jeffrey Bryant
What gets into orbit, stays in the orbit...or does it? It turns out it depends on the height of the orbit. KOSMOS-482 was not destined for Earth orbit at all - launched in 1972 by the Soviet Union, was a planned lander mission on Venus. The mission did not go as planned and the spacecraft got stuck orbiting Earth for 53 years. To be precise, the Venus descent craft is the part that is still orbiting. Re-entry is expected to be on May 10, 2025.
KOSMOS-482 was one of the space probes designed for the Soviet Union space program Venera (Venus in Russian), running between 1961 and 1984. Only those that succeeded were renamed to more interesting iteration of Venera, to keep with soviet space program tradition of reserving the good names only for the successful missions. KOSMOS-482 was the second probe launched in March 1972 - the first one reached Venus and is known as Venera 8.
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Kosmos482=;
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Rule@@Kosmos482[{"Name","Image"}]
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Cosmos 482 descent craft
After the failed launch, the remains of KOSMOS-482 remained at an elliptical Earth orbit with a maximum altitude of about 10000 km. Almost all human made objects are in what is called LEO - Low Earth Orbit, which is defined as having an orbital period of 128 minutes or less and its maximum altitude cut-off is at about 2000 km (1243 miles):
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WolframAlpha["LEO orbit"]
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Through the years the orbit of KOSMOS-482 has been shrinking due to atmospheric drag and in May 2025 it is already less than 300 kilometers. The space probe simply has no energy source to counteract the Earth’s gravity. Therefore, the leftovers of KOSMOS-482 will return to Earth, although not gracefully at all.
Kosmos482Dated,
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UnitConvert[%,"km"]
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The part of KOSMOS-482 that remained in the orbit for over half century is the Venus landing probe. Since it was designed to pass through the hot and highly pressurized atmosphere of Venus, there are low chances the spacecraft will even partially burn while passing through much milder terrestrial atmosphere. The probe is comparable to a small car and will hit the ground (or water) with the speed of few hundred kilometers per hour (imagine a plane at the cruising altitude).
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{#,UnitConvert[#,"kg"]}&Kosmos482
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,
A lot is known about KOSMOS-482, but when and where exactly it crashes still remains uncertain. The exact time and place of the crash is hard to compute due to dynamic effects of Earth atmosphere and space weather. By now the estimated time is around 07:00 UTC on May 10 but the uncertainty of these estimates is about 10 hours! The value of the orbital inclination narrows the landing zone to be somewhere between the latitudes of 52 N and 52 S:
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Kosmos482
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We can visualize the probe track on May 10:
dr=DateRange,,;track=Kosmos482[Dated["Position",#]&/@dr];
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GeoGraphics[{Red,GeoPath[track]},GeoRange->All,GeoGridLines->Quantity[15,"AngularDegrees"],GeoGridLinesStyle->Directive[Opacity[0.5],White],GeoBackground->"ReliefMap",ImageSize->600]
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The track goes over most of Earth surface - it is easier to see using orthographic projection:
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opts={GeoRange->All,GeoBackground->"Satellite",GeoProjection->"Orthographic",GeoGridLines->Quantity[15,"AngularDegrees"],GeoGridLinesStyle->Gray,ImageSize->500};
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maps=Table[GeoGraphics[{Red,AbsoluteThickness[2],GeoPath[track]},GeoCenter->{0,k},opts,PlotLabel->Style["KOSMOS 482 - May 10, 2025 (UTC)",Bold,14]],{k,0,360,10}];
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SlideShowVideo[maps,FrameRate->3,RasterSize->500]
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Finally, we can follow KOSMOS-482 flying over Earth:
dr2=DateRange,,;flyby=Kosmos482[Dated["Position",#]&/@dr2];
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frames=MapIndexed[GeoGraphics[{White,AbsoluteThickness[2],GeoPath[flyby[[1;;First[#2]]]],Red,PointSize[.015],Point[GeoPosition[#1[[2]][[1,1;;2]]]]},GeoCenter->#1[[2]],opts,PlotLabel->Style[Row[{"KOSMOS 482 - May 10, 2025 ",DateString[#[[1]],"Time"]," (UTC)"}],Bold,14]]&,Transpose[{dr2,flyby}]];
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SlideShowVideo[frames,DefaultDuration->120,RasterSize->500]
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Over the weekend, the re-entry of KOSMOS-482 will be in the news. Time will tell if it will splash down harmlessly in the ocean or impact in a populated area on land.
CITE THIS NOTEBOOK
CITE THIS NOTEBOOK
The uncontrolled re-entry of a large Soviet-era Venus probe KOSMOS-482 on May 10, 2025
by Gosia Konwerska & Jeffrey Bryant
Wolfram Community, STAFF PICKS, May 9, 2025
https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/3458262
by Gosia Konwerska & Jeffrey Bryant
Wolfram Community, STAFF PICKS, May 9, 2025
https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/3458262